Over the last several months, Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown and Mayor Lori Lightfoot have repeatedly tried to blame pretrial justice reforms for the city’s gun violence without being able to back up their claims with anything more than fear. Chicago Police Superintendent Brown has said that he sees the media as a partner in his campaign against pretrial reforms. He asked reporters at a July 6th press conference to raise their hands if they agreed with judges’ bond decisions and suggested that media coverage of his claims will be the force “that changes what happens in the courts.” Good journalism fact-checks the claims made by public officials, particularly when those claims have a direct relationship to contested public policy. All too often though, the media is quick to amplify fearmongering from elected officials, as this practice fits squarely within the “if it bleeds, it leads” framework that is the bread and butter of local newsrooms.

There is a wealth of data that proves the city’s claims on pretrial justice reform are not based in fact. While some outlets have highlighted the academic research, many have not mentioned it or have even gone as far as amplifying bad research. On Wednesday, July 7, NBC Chicago ran a report by on the false narratives about pretrial justice reforms and gun violence being put forth by Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown. The report prominently featured a study from the Utah Quinney College of Law and comments from one of the report’s authors, Professor Paul Cassell. The Coalition to End Money Bond is alarmed to see this study, which has been directly debunked by respected research institutions and makes claims contrary to the findings of every other study of Cook County’s pretrial justice reforms, relied on as evidence for Brown’s theory. The segment’s failure to meaningfully engage any other academic research that made contradictory findings is alarming. Although the segment mentions a more recent report from respected criminologists at Loyola University (which has been cited by numerous Cook County officials, Chicago aldermen, and advocates in public discussions), its findings were quickly glossed over in favor of extended discussion of the Utah study. 

In brief, the Cassell and Fowles (2020) study cited by NBC Chicago relies on manipulated data. The authors suggest that bail reform caused crime to increase by at least 33% from 2018 to 2019 without reflecting the overall downward trend in the Cook County crime rate during that time. In short, their projected numbers are contradicted by the reality of crime rates in Chicago during the same time period. The JFA Institute, which works in partnership with federal, state, and local government agencies and philanthropic foundations, identified several mistakes and misrepresentations in the Cassell and Fowles study: it inaccurately equates arrests with crimes committed; focuses on a relative rate rather than an actual rate of crime; uses inflated or undocumented estimates to establish costs to victims; omits the costs of unnecessarily jailing thousands of people each year; fails to account for potential changes in prosecutorial policies; and applies state prison recidivism rates across the country to Cook County pretrial releases (a comparison of carceral apples to oranges). Cassell and Fowles are also not experts in the field of criminal justice policy evaluation. Their disciplines are law and economics, respectively. Their past promotion of the debunked “Ferguson Effect” with regard to police reforms should also warrant journalistic skepticism of their explanations.

Although it is difficult to triangulate what overall trends would look like without bail reforms given the data provided, there has been a downward trend in crime that has occurred at the same time as an overall increase in pretrial release rates. The JFA Institute report concludes that bail reform is safe—and even national media organizations such as CNN, have acknowledged that “there’s no clear evidence linking bail reforms … to the recent rise in violent crimes,” and that “the majority of cities that have seen increases in crime have not eliminated cash bail.” 

The public expects and demands that respected news outlets like NBC Chicago will be responsible in their reporting, which requires including all the pertinent information available. As the JFA Institute report helps to show, the Cassell and Fowles study paints an inaccurate picture of the costs and benefits of bail reform. Relying exclusively on this study was irresponsible and actively misinformed the public about the impact of pretrial justice reforms that have positively impacted tens of thousands of people across Cook County since 2017. This sort of one-sided story concretely harms Black and Brown communities that are most impacted by pretrial policies. Evaluation of media coverage in New York state has demonstrated that inaccurate media coverage falsely linking public safety concerns to bail reform contributed directly to the rollbacks of reforms there and the resulting increased pretrial incarceration rates.
Pretrial policy impacts the freedom and well-being of the tens of thousands of people passing through the Cook County criminal court system every year. We encourage local media to take the time to report on the academic research conducted by Chicago’s own Loyola University and to speak with Chicago Alderpeople Byron Sigcho-Lopez, Rossana Rodriguez Sanchez, and Carlos Ramirez-Rosa, Cook County Public Defender Sharone Mitchell, Jr., Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, Cook County Chief Judge Timothy Evans, and the countless community advocates who have tirelessly worked to ensure that Cook County is not violating the constitutional rights of people accused of crimes.